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[DemonHunter] Voidfall proc rate is stack-dependent (per-spec)#11154

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taherbert:dh/voidfall-stack-dependent-proc-rate
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[DemonHunter] Voidfall proc rate is stack-dependent (per-spec)#11154
taherbert wants to merge 1 commit intosimulationcraft:midnightfrom
taherbert:dh/voidfall-stack-dependent-proc-rate

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@taherbert taherbert commented Mar 12, 2026

Summary

  • Voidfall building proc chance decreases with current stack count, rather than being a flat rate from spell data (effectN(3) = 35%)
  • WCL analysis of 72k+ eligible casts shows per-stack rates with high statistical significance for both specs
  • Devourer procs ~2pp higher than Vengeance at all stack levels (z-test p<0.02), so each spec gets its own defaults
  • Defaults exposed as per-spec player options for tuning

WCL Data

Vengeance (21,942 eligible Fracture casts, 325 players, S1 live)

Stacks Eligible Procs Rate 95% CI vs 35%
0 9,591 3,677 38.3% [37.4%, 39.3%] p<0.0001
1 7,471 2,432 32.6% [31.5%, 33.6%] p<0.0001
2 4,880 1,457 29.9% [28.6%, 31.2%] p<0.0001
Overall 21,942 7,566 34.5% [33.9%, 35.1%] p=0.11

Chi-squared: X2=121.6, df=2 (p<0.0001). Defaults: 0.385 / 0.325 / 0.30

Devourer (50,067 eligible Consume/Devour casts, 107 players)

Stacks Eligible Procs Rate 95% CI vs 35%
0 9,658 3,974 41.1% [40.2%, 42.1%] p<0.0001
1 22,638 7,712 34.1% [33.5%, 34.7%] p=0.003
2 17,771 5,747 32.3% [31.7%, 33.0%] p<0.0001
Overall 50,067 17,451 34.9% [34.4%, 35.3%] p=0.71

Chi-squared: X2=288.5, df=2 (p<0.0001). Defaults: 0.41 / 0.34 / 0.325

Cross-spec comparison

Stacks Vengeance Devourer Delta z-test
0 38.3% 41.1% +2.8pp p<0.0001
1 32.6% 34.1% +1.5pp p=0.017
2 29.9% 32.3% +2.4pp p=0.001

No clean formula fits the data -- likely hard-coded server values.

@taherbert taherbert force-pushed the dh/voidfall-stack-dependent-proc-rate branch from 5886b17 to 2952d3c Compare March 12, 2026 02:59
@taherbert taherbert changed the title [DemonHunter] Voidfall proc rate is stack-dependent [DemonHunter] Voidfall proc rate is stack-dependent for Vengeance Mar 12, 2026
@taherbert taherbert changed the title [DemonHunter] Voidfall proc rate is stack-dependent for Vengeance [Vengance] Voidfall proc rate is stack-dependent for Vengeance Mar 12, 2026
@taherbert taherbert force-pushed the dh/voidfall-stack-dependent-proc-rate branch from 2952d3c to 0bd6473 Compare March 12, 2026 03:03
@taherbert taherbert marked this pull request as ready for review March 12, 2026 03:05
@taherbert taherbert force-pushed the dh/voidfall-stack-dependent-proc-rate branch from 0bd6473 to 29f4d45 Compare March 12, 2026 03:06
@taherbert taherbert changed the title [Vengance] Voidfall proc rate is stack-dependent for Vengeance [DemonHunter] Voidfall proc rate is stack-dependent Mar 20, 2026
@taherbert taherbert changed the title [DemonHunter] Voidfall proc rate is stack-dependent [DemonHunter] Voidfall proc rate is stack-dependent (per-spec) Mar 20, 2026
WCL analysis of ~72k eligible casts shows voidfall building proc chance
decreases with current stack count. Data fits rate = base - k*sqrt(stacks)
within 0.5pp, but no spell data parameterizes the decay. Per-spec rates
from WCL (Devourer procs ~2pp higher than Vengeance at all stack levels):

  Vengeance (21,942 casts): 38.5% / 32.5% / 30.0%
  Devourer  (50,067 casts): 41.0% / 34.0% / 32.5%

Resolved in hero_spec following the wounded_quarry_proc_rate pattern.
Defaults exposed as per-spec player options for tuning.
@taherbert taherbert force-pushed the dh/voidfall-stack-dependent-proc-rate branch from 73a9165 to be13a8d Compare March 20, 2026 17:06
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