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Add ORG labor-market imputations to CPS and eCPS#673

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MaxGhenis wants to merge 1 commit intoPolicyEngine:mainfrom
MaxGhenis:codex/org-impute
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Add ORG labor-market imputations to CPS and eCPS#673
MaxGhenis wants to merge 1 commit intoPolicyEngine:mainfrom
MaxGhenis:codex/org-impute

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Mar 31, 2026

Summary

Fixes #587.

This adds ORG-derived labor-market inputs to policyengine-us-data:

  • imputes hourly_wage, is_paid_hourly, and is_union_member_or_covered onto CPS persons
  • carries those variables through source imputation and Extended CPS stage 2
  • uses primary 2024 Census Basic Monthly CPS outgoing-rotation-group records for wage/hourly-status inputs
  • assigns union coverage from official 2024 BLS union-representation tables with state-level targeting and demographic weighting

Why

The pre-ORG eCPS was effectively missing hourly-pay status, which feeds the overtime eligibility path in policyengine-us. Adding ORG materially improves the estimated overtime tax expenditure on the published eCPS weights.

Using the same published enhanced_cps_2024.h5 before and after ORG overlay:

  • 2026 overtime deduction tax expenditure rises from $9.63B to $14.56B
  • that is +$4.93B or +51.2%

Caveat: that comparison is on the published eCPS weights with ORG overlaid, not a fully regenerated Enhanced CPS artifact.

Validation

Companion PR

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Closing in favor of #674, which is opened from an upstream branch so CI can run.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis closed this Mar 31, 2026
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Impute CPS ORG variables (hourly wages, union status) onto eCPS

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