Improve calibration: AGI-conditional geography, expanded targets, pipeline fixes#671
Open
Improve calibration: AGI-conditional geography, expanded targets, pipeline fixes#671
Conversation
…rgets - Switch loss_type from "relative" to "capped_relative" in L0 optimizer. Caps relative error at ±10 (max loss 100 per target) to prevent extreme PUF-inflated targets from hijacking gradients. - Disable state_income_tax targets: ETL hardcodes $0 for WA and NH, but PolicyEngine computes non-zero tax (WA capital gains, NH interest/dividends). The $0 targets produced catastrophic loss crushing WA/NH weights to zero. - Enable district AGI, AGI bins, and JCT reform targets in config. - Result: 15,900 targets, median error 0.6% at epoch 500. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Route top-10% AGI households to congressional districts proportional to CD AGI targets instead of uniform random assignment. This prevents the optimizer from having to zero out extreme-income records in low-AGI districts, which was destroying population targets. Also reverts loss_type from "capped_relative" back to "relative" to restore AGI gradient signal. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
baogorek
force-pushed
the
fix/pipeline-resilience
branch
from
d9f5d1c to
4d7c227
Compare
baogorek
changed the title
Collaborator
Author
|
I was going to primarily request @juaristi22 for the review, but I'll add you, @MaxGhenis, since I see you've got PRs in progress and @anth-volk is FYI |
This file contains hidden or bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Sign up for free
to join this conversation on GitHub.
Already have an account?
Sign in to comment
1 participant
Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.This suggestion is invalid because no changes were made to the code.Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is closed.Suggestions cannot be applied while viewing a subset of changes.Only one suggestion per line can be applied in a batch.Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.Applying suggestions on deleted lines is not supported.You must change the existing code in this line in order to create a valid suggestion.Outdated suggestions cannot be applied.This suggestion has been applied or marked resolved.Suggestions cannot be applied from pending reviews.Suggestions cannot be applied on multi-line comments.Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is queued to merge.Suggestion cannot be applied right now. Please check back later.
Summary
get_county_filter_probabilityapproach. Removes ~90 lines of dead code fromblock_assignment.py.reform_id(was incorrectly sharing cached counts across reforms); reform household variable assembly no longer overwrites with zeros when reform data is missing for a state.reform_id; database validation rejects tax expenditure vars withreform_id=0in root stratum.Test plan
make datacompletes without errors🤖 Generated with Claude Code